# 美国作业格式：研究模型分析

The very first report is ‘Real Term Structure forecasts of consumption growth’ published by Efthymios Argyropoulos, Elias Tzavalis in 2015. The theoretical concept/framework used in the research is the random walk model and the spread model. Spread related to the forecasting implications of GDTSM of real rate of interests may be related to the future consumption of the overall periods of growth and the same. The equations for the spread model are Rt= δ0 + δ1X1,E t [Δτ C t +τ] = ψ0 (T) + ψ1 (T)’ X1. The final equation is obtained as follows: Rt (T)= (1/T) [ A (τ) + D (τ)’ Xt ] for τ= 1,2,3. The research question is to analyze the different structure models for the calculation of real interest rate in order to examine the predictable ability for a short term interest rate and the overall spread of the same with a long-term rate of investment in order to analyze and predict the future of the real growth of consumption. The overall estimation of the model is used to provide the support related to smoothing hypothesis.

Thus, the paper tries to show that the overall real structure has been spanned by two different reverting state variables. In order to analyze the results, the GDTSM has been tested and is exampled if the term structure model can be used for giving the explanation related to the term structure model. This is used to explain the patters of the slop coefficients. In order to analyze the same, the very first step was the carry the unit root test at different levels. After that the principal analysis of the components was carried out to retrieve k number of common factors in the term structure of the real interest rates. By this the maximum number of state variables is determined. After this, the estimation of the real term structure model has been carried out. Further, the real term structure forecast for the consumption growth was calculated. From the research paper, it can be found that the model can give the proper explanation related to different dynamics of real interests’ rates and the growth of the consumption which is observed in reality.