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多年来，法玛教授提出的随机漫步理论已经受到公众的关注。有几位研究学者在研究这个问题。许多科学研究都是通过开放许多实验来证明其重要性的。有效市场的概念可以分为两部分。第一个想法是，股票的回报率在一个有效的股票市场是随机的。此外，第二种观点认为，股票市场的参与者无法获得超额利润(Dunham, 2013)。自随机漫步理论和有效市场假说成立以来，许多学者对这一理论进行了研究，并在现代金融研究和实证领域中探寻了这一理论的相关性。

法玛教授撰写的研究论文在当代投资情景中仍有一定的借鉴意义，一些学术学者仍在研究论文中提出的理论。随机游走理论被认为是重要的金融理论，它为市场提供了重要的视角。它支持证券市场的长期投资，而不是依赖于股票市场的投机性交易。随机漫步理论并不依赖于股票市场的基本面分析，因为它认为证券价格是非常难以控制和难以管理的。因此，对未来安全价格的预测是不可能的。通常情况下，预测是正确的，但这是机会的因素。此外，投资决策不能以概率为基础。根据随机漫步理论，过去的安全性能与未来的价格没有任何关系，价格变化是独立的，不能通过股票过去的表现来预测。几位学者就股票市场效率问题进行了探讨，并对这一专题进行了几项研究。随机漫步理论认为，股票价格数据似乎以一致的方式存在，股票的价格水平可以通过一系列随机数字的路径得到更有效的预测。

Over the years, the theory of random walk presented by Professor Fama has undergone public scrutiny. There are several research scholars who worked on this matter. Various scientific research studies are conducted by opening many trials which are made to demonstrate its importance. The idea of the efficient market can be divided into two parts. The first idea is that the return from the stock is random in an efficient stock market. Moreover, the second idea is that the participants of the stock market cannot earn a surplus profit (Dunham, 2013). Since the inception of the random walk theory and efficient market hypothesis, many scholars work on this theory and search the relevance of this theory in modern finance study and empirical field.

The research article written by Professor Fama is still relevant in the contemporary investment scenarios, and several academic scholars still work on the theories presented in the paper. The random walk theory is considered as the critical finance theory, and it provides significant insight of the market. It supports long-term investment in the security market instead of depending on the speculative daily trading in the stock market. The random walk theory does not rely on the fundamental analysis of the stock market as it states that the security price is immensely unruly and unmanageable. Thus, the prediction of the future price of security cannot be possible. Often the prediction can be true, but that is the factor of chance. Moreover, the investment decision cannot be taken based on probability. According to the random walk theory, the past performances of security have not any connection with its future price, and the price changes are independent and cannot be predicted by the past performance of the stocks. Several academic scholars have addressed the issues regarding the stock market efficiency and also conducted several research works on this particular topic. The random walk theory suggests that the stock price data seem to exist in a consistent way and a stock’s price level can be more efficiently predicted by the path of a range of collected random numbers.

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随机漫步理论认为，不可能持续打破市场，特别是在短期内，因为无法预测股票的价格。这本书的作者是一个随机漫步在华尔街的Malkiel，他声称分析师或专业顾问可以为投资组合增加一分钟或没有价值。作者认为，对投资、盈利预测和复杂图表模型的咨询服务是徒劳无益的。

作者Malkiel和Fama教授提供的关于random walk理论的理论为害怕的个人投资者提供了相当大的支持。然而，作者特别鼓励投资者了解随机漫步理论所面临的投资理论和投资技巧(DahiyaGaina, 2012)。因此，笔者主张对投资进行买入和持有策略，认为这是优化投资回报的最佳途径。

根据支持随机漫步理论和有效市场假说(EMH)的学者们的观点，股票的现有市场价格是复制完整的、可获取的信息，而证券的当前市场价格是其真实价值。这个想法对随机漫步理论很重要。如果目前的市场价格是股票实际价值的完美例证，那么没有分析可以洞察未来价格的变化(Dsouza和Mallikarjunappa, 2015)。

The random walk theory claims that it is not possible to constantly break the market, specifically in the short term, as it is not possible to anticipate the prices of stocks. The author of the book A Random Walk Down Wall Street Malkiel claims that the analysts or the professional advisors can add the minute or no value to the portfolios. According to the author, advisory services for the investment, earnings predictions and complex chart models are futile and useless.

The author Malkiel and the theory provided by Professor Fama regarding the random walk theory provide considerable support to the scared individual investor. However, the authors specifically encourage investors to be aware of the theories and techniques of investment that the random walk theory confronts (DahiyaGaina, 2012). Therefore, the author advocates the buy & hold strategy for the investment as he considered it as the best way to optimize the return on the investment.
According to the scholars who support random walk theory and efficient market hypothesis (EMH), the existing market price of a stock replicates the complete, accessible information, and the current market price of the security is its true value. The idea is significant for the random walks theory. If the present market price is a perfect illustration of the actual value of stock, then no analysis can deliver insight into where price will shift in the future(Dsouza and Mallikarjunappa, 2015).

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有很多人认为，这些事件是相互关联的，这些事件发生在一个集群中，即使是在随机数据中出现，比如抛硬币。随机漫步理论描述了预期安全价格的所有方法最终都是无用的。根据Malkiel(2016)的说法，内在价值的感知是不可靠的，因为它依赖于对股票市场未来收益的主观估计。在这个问题上，他建议使用预期派息、预期增长率、估计风险以及利率等因素，这些因素支持假设安全的内在价值(Semenov, 2014)。

根据随机行走理论，技术分析是不可靠的，因为在销售价格趋势被打破后，以卖出的价格趋势来确定的价格趋势。重要的是，图表分析师使用的是买入或卖出太晚，并没有发现这条船。根据理论，这发生在股票价格复制信息和技术分析师移动股票。根据Malkiel(2016)，技术分析的广泛使用减少了方法的好处。

此外，根据Malkiel(2016)的说法，根本的分析是不完善的，原因是分析员经常收集信息，这些信息是坏的，没有价值的或者错误的解释。这就导致了股票价值的糟糕预测。因此，分析师往往对未来的安全价格做出错误的预测。一个组织或相关行业的外部因素可能会对股价产生严重的影响，使得基本面分析不恰当且不相关。

There are many people believe that the events are correlated with each other, which come in a cluster and streak even if the streak appears in random data like coin tosses. The random walks theory depicted that the entire methods of anticipating security price are useless in the end. According to Malkiel (2016), the perception of intrinsic value is undependable as it depends on the subjective estimation of the future earnings of the stock market. In this matter, he suggests using the factor like expected dividend pay-out, expected growth rate, estimated risk along with the interest rate, which support in assuming the intrinsic value of the security (Semenov, 2014).

According to the random walk theory, the technical analysis is undependable as the Chartist used to buy only the after price trends, which are established with the sell after the selling price trends are broken down. Importantly, the chartists use to buy or sell too late and fail to spot the boat. As per the theory, this occurs as the stock price replicates the information and the technical analyst moves on the stock. As per Malkiel (2016), the wide usages of technical analysis decrease the benefits of the approach.
Furthermore, according to Malkiel (2016), the fundamental analysis is imperfection, and the reason is the analyst often gathers information which is bad, worthless or incorrect interpretation of that information. It leads to the bad prediction of the stock value. Therefore, the analyst often predicts wrongly about the future price of the security. The exterior factors of an organization or the relevant industry may influence badly on the stock price, which makes the fundamental analysis inappropriate and irrelevant.

论文代写-随机漫步理论

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随机漫步理论有两种截然不同的模式，在这两种模型中，数据或信息的快速合并对分析师和投资者都是不利的。来自公众的信息不会帮助分析师或投资者选择被低估的股票，因为市场已经将信息纳入了安全价格(Xu and Zhang, 2014)。

根据研究学者们的观点，主张随机漫步理论的人认为，这种理论是由具有相似分布的安全价格变化构成的。它还表明，安全价格变动并不相互依赖，这意味着它们是独立的。因此，不能利用以前的安全价格或市场趋势来预测其未来的走势(Zhang和Yang, 2016)。按照这个概念，安全价格是随机的，也是不可预测的。

根据随机漫步理论的支持者们的说法，如果不承担额外的风险，就不可能超越或打破市场。有效市场假说认为，股票价格完全复制了完全可用的信息和预测;因此，实际价格是对公司内在价值的最好估计。这将阻止任何人以稳定的方式对错误定价的证券进行开发，因为价格的变动是随机的，并且会被意外事件所驱动(Dunham, 2013)。为此，研究这一课题的学者们主张投资于一个被动管理的多元基金。

There are two distinct models of the random walk theory, and in both models, the rapid incorporation of the data or information is not beneficial to the analysts and investors. The information gathered from the public will not assist an analyst or investor in selecting undervalued stocks because the market has already incorporated the information into the security price (Xu and Zhang, 2014).
According to the research scholars, who advocates random walk theory addresses that the theory consists of security price alterations with having similar distribution. It also indicates that the security price alterations are not dependent to each other that mean they are independent. Therefore, the previous movement or trend of a security price or market cannot be utilized to forecast its future movement (Zhang and Yang, 2016). As per the concept, the security prices take a random as well as unpredictable way.

According to the supporters of the random walk theory, it is not possible to outperform or break the market without assuming the extra risk. The efficient market hypothesis states that stock prices completely replicate the complete available information and prediction; thus, the actual prices are the best estimation of a firm’s intrinsic value. This would prevent anyone from the exploitation of the mispriced securities in a steady way, as the movements of prices are random and use to be driven by the unforeseen incidents (Dunham, 2013). For this reason, the research scholars who work on this topic advocate the investment in a passively managed well-diversified fund.

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根据随机漫步理论，股票的现有市场价格是机会的结果，而不是之前事件的总和或人类行为模型的结果。随机漫步理论被认为是一个激烈争论的话题，在学术学者、金融分析师和投资者之间存在着许多争论。一个活跃的交易股票的价格变动或价格变动被证明是随机的，因此任何对未来价格波动的预测都必须被认为是一个错误的练习(Bougioukou, 2015)。

根据支持随机漫步理论的学者们的说法，未来安全价格的变动比过去的更难以预测。这个想法是随机漫步理论的关键。如果股票的当前市场价格是股票实际价值的完整表示，那么就没有任何方法可以分析，这可以对未来的证券价格走势提供一个适当的洞察。

作者Malkiel将随机漫步的概念和理论进行了扩展，提出了一种观点，即安全的主动交易是以下命题。正是由于交易成本的随机性，价格变动才说明作者提出的命题(Chitenderu, Maredza and Sibanda, 2014)。通过对不同的股票市场指数进行投资，买入并持有交易管理的理念，并将其与短期交易策略进行技术分析比较，认为这是一种较好的交易策略。

According to the random walk theory, a stock’s existing market price is a result of chance rather than the summation of previous events or the outcome of the model of human behaviour. The random walk theory is considered as a hotly debated subject, and there are many debates occur in this subject among the academic scholars, financial analyst and the investors. The individual prices movement or price changes of an actively traded stock are illustrated to be random and thus any prediction of future price fluctuations must be considered as a faulty exercise (Bougioukou, 2015).

According to the scholars who support the random walk theory, the future movement of the security price is widely unpredictable than the past one. The idea is the key for the random walk theory. In case the present market price of a stock is a full representation of the actual value of the stock, then there is not any way to analysis, which can give an appropriate insight into where the security price will move in future.
The author Malkiel made expansion of the concepts and theory of random walk by provide an argument that the active trading of security is the following proposition. It is because of the transaction cost random characteristics of the price movement which indicates the explanation of the proposition made by the author (Chitenderu, Maredza and Sibanda, 2014). The investment are implemented on different stock market indices to buy and hold philosophies of trade management and it is considered as far better trading strategy by Malkiel with comparing to the short term trading strategies by technical analysis.

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尤金·法玛教授的这篇文章的主要主题是评估证券的未来价值，并认识到支持证券未来价格的因素。然而，总体而言，有两种理论来评估市场，并预测未来的安全价格(DahiyaGaina, 2012)。这两种理论分别是宪章理论和随机漫步理论。宪章理论建立在安全价格的先前行为之上。根据该理论，如果任何人都能有效地理解任何特定安全的价格变化的行为模式，那么个人从股票市场中获利的机会就会增加(Dsouza和Mallikarjunappa, 2015)。教授如何不支持宪章理论，相反，他提倡随机漫步理论。根据文章作者的观点，在证券市场上，由于证券市场价格的变化是独立的，所以之前的图表对于做出任何艰难的投资决策都是没有用的，这与过去的价格没有任何关系(Dunham, 2013)。因此，过去的安全价格不能用来预测未来的价格。

论文对当前金融文献的影响: 这篇论文已经写了将近50年了。然而，本文的理论和概念在当代股票市场上是有关联的，而目前研究这一特定问题的研究人员经常引用这篇文章的理论和原理。学者们正在研究这个问题(证券市场的行为和对未来价格的预测)，并对随机漫步理论(Echaust, 2014)提供了非常重要的意义。该理论认为，市场和证券价格是随机的，它们与过去的价格没有任何联系。证券的过去价格不能影响证券的未来价格。这一理论背后的主要思想是，安全价格的随机性使得人们试图识别价格模式以获取最新信息的好处。具体来说，该理论认为日常的安全价格是独立的(Gallander, 2008)。这意味着，这种势头在本质上并没有持续下去，而且对于任何特定股票的未来增长，都无法预测之前的盈利增长。

The main theme of the article by Professor Eugene F. Fama is to evaluate the future value of the security and to recognize the factors that support in predicting future price of the securities. However, in general, there are two theories that exist to evaluate the market and predict the future price of the security (DahiyaGaina, 2012). The two theories are the chartist theory and the random walks theory. The Chartist theory is founded on the previous behaviour of the security price. According to the theory, if anyone can be able to understand the behaviour pattern of the price change of any specific security efficiently, the chance of the individual to make the profit from the stock market is increased (Dsouza and Mallikarjunappa, 2015). How the Professor did not support the Chartist theory, instead he advocated for the random walks theory. According to the author of the article, the previous charts are not useful for making any tough investment decision in the stock market as the changing of the prices in the security market is independent, and this has not any connection with the past price (Dunham, 2013). Therefore, the past prices of the security cannot be used to predict the future price.

Impact of the paper on current financial literature: However, the paper has been written for almost fifty years. Still, the theories and concepts of the paper are relevant in the contemporary stock market, and the present researchers who work on this particular matter frequently used to refer the theories and principal of this article. The scholars are working in this matter (behaviour of security market and prediction of future price) and providing great importance to random walks theory (Echaust, 2014). The theory states that the markets as well as the security prices are random and they do not have any connection with the past price. The past prices of the security cannot influence the future price of the securities. The main idea behind this theory is that the randomness of security prices makes attempt for recognizing the price patterns to take benefits of latest information. Specifically, the theory argues that the day-to-day security prices are independent (Gallander, 2008). It means that the momentum does not persist in nature and the computation of the previous earning growth cannot be anticipated for future growth of any specific stock.

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随机漫步理论起源于很久以前。1900年，法国数学家Louis Bachelier在他的著作《投机理论》中首次使用了这个概念。按照Bachelier的说法，安全价格是相互独立的，之前的价格与安全的未来价格没有任何关系。股票价格极度失控;因此，未来远比前一个更难以预测(Jianlong, HafizahJaaman和BanuSamsudin, 2015)。直到20世纪60年代，“有效市场假说”(EMH)在金融界站稳脚跟之后，Bachelier的概念才开始活跃起来。此外，当尤金·f·法马教授发表他的博士论文《股票市场价格的行为》时，这个假说得到了普及。从那时起，这本书中提出的理论的重要性与日俱增。此外，即使在当前的市场情况下，这些理论也为投资决策提供了有益的贡献(Mak, 2006)。

在当代投资环境中，波顿·g·麦基尔(Burton G. Malkiel)在华尔街随机漫步的这本书被广泛地用作在股票市场上做出有效投资决策的有用指南。作者伯顿·g·麦基尔(Burton G. Malkiel)受到了尤金·法玛(Eugene F. Fama)教授的股票市场价格行为的极大影响，而他的继任者则非常重视前任的理论和原则。1973年，伯顿·g·麦基尔(Burton G. Malkiel)写了这本书(Rahardjo, 2014)。而且，即使是现在，这本书的理论和概念对于做出有效的投资决定也是非常有用的，这本书被认为是一个有价值的投资指南。

The idea of random walk theory was originated long before. In the year of 1900, the French mathematician Louis Bachelier first uses this concept in his book The Theory of Speculation. As per Bachelier, the security prices are independent of each other and the previous price has not any relevance upon the future price of the security. The stock prices are immensely uncontrollable; thus, the future is extensively unpredictable than the previous one (Jianlong, HafizahJaaman and BanuSamsudin, 2015). The concept of Bachelier was inactive until the 1960s when the “efficient market hypothesis” (EMH) got a foothold in the financial world. Moreover, the hypothesis got popularity when Professor Eugene F. Fama published his Ph.D. dissertation paper The Behaviour of Stock Market Prices. Since then the importance of the theories presented in this book is increasingly growing. Moreover, even in current market scenarios, the theories provide a useful contribution in making investment decisions (Mak, 2006).

In contemporary investment landscape, the book A Random Walk down Wall Street by Burton G. Malkiel is widely used as a useful guidance for making an effective investment decision in the stock market. The author, Burton G. Malkiel, was immensely influenced by the book The Behaviour of Stock market Prices by Professor Eugene F. Fama and successor author had given great emphasis to the theories and principals of the predecessor. In the year of 1973, Burton G. Malkiel wrote this book (Rahardjo, 2014). Moreover, even now, the theories and concepts of this book are very useful for making effective investment decisions, and the book is considered as a valuable investment guide.

美国论文代写-随机游走理论

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根据作者的观点，关于真实意义上的证券价格的随机游走理论有两个不同的假设:

连续的价格变动是独立的。
价格的变动在某种程度上是传统的。

根据这篇文章，一系列连续的价格变动足以说明价格变动分配的某些特定性质。如果范围内的真实情况不足以解释所涉及的财产，统计学家可以将一个独立的假设作为对现实的充分描述(Chen, 2010)。

对某一特定股票的连续价格变动的独立性，可能只是模仿一种完全不同于实际经济世界的价格机制和政治事件。

随机漫步理论的另一个假设是价格变动符合可能性分布(Chitenderu, Maredza和Sibanda, 2014)。然而，在这两个假设之间，独立性是最重要的。价格变动的分配模型被认为是对希望在这一领域从事实际工作的个人的重要信息。统计工具的强度通常与它的功能特性密切相关。

According to the author, the theory of the random walks regarding the security prices in genuine sense associates with two different hypotheses which are as follows:
The successive price alterations are independent.
The price alterations are conventional to some possibility distribution.
According to the article, a range of successive price alterations is adequate to account for some specific property of the distribution of price alterations. In case the real in the ranges is not adequate to explain for the property in question, the statistician may take an independent hypothesis as a sufficient description of the reality (Chen, 2010).
Independence of consecutive price alteration for a specific stock may simply imitate a price mechanism that is completely dissimilar to the actual world of economies along with the political events.

Another hypothesis of the theory of random walks is indicated to be the price alteration that conforms to possibility distribution (Chitenderu, Maredza and Sibanda, 2014). However, between the two hypotheses, the independence is the most significant. The model of the distribution of the price alterations is considered as important information to an individual who wishes to perform the practical job in this field. The strength of statistical tools is in general closely connected to the nature of data to which it is functional.

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所有的图表理论认为，股票价格的过去行为被认为是预测股票未来走势的重要信息(Bei et al.， 2014)。这些理论主要基于“历史重演”的原则。此外，根据该理论，以往价格行为的模式将倾向于在未来再次发生。根据这些图表理论，如果一个人仔细地分析了价格图表，个人就可以对价格行为模型有特定的安全性的理解，并且能够有效地预测特定安全价格的未来行为。此外，先前提到的理论可以有效地增加投资于股票市场的潜在利润(Fama, 1965)。

另一种随机漫步理论则提供了不同的看法。此外，根据随机游动的理论，未来安全价格水平的旅程可以更有效地预测一系列随机数据的收集过程。从统计学上讲，这个理论可以解释为，连续的价格变化是独立的，并且是相同的分散的随机变量。从一个简单的意义上说，这意味着价格变动的范围没有记忆;因此，之前的统计数据不能用于预测股票未来价格的准确方法(Borges, 2011)。教授更强调随机漫步理论，它是随机漫步模型的基础。在本文中，作者详细讨论了随机游动模型的理论。此外，作者还研究了随机漫步模型的实际有效性，并得出结论:数据似乎以一致的方式存在，并为理论提供了强有力的支持(Bougioukou, 2015)。文章的结论是，以前的图表的阅读可能是一个有趣的过去的时间。但是，这些不能为股票市场的投资者提供实际的价值。

All the Chartist theories assume that the previous behaviour of the stock price is considered as the important information and useful in predicting the future behaviour of the stock(Bei et al., 2014). The theories are mainly based on the principle “history repeat itself”. Moreover, according to the theory, the pattern of the previous price behaviour will be inclined to happen again in the future. According to these chartists theory, if an individual carefully analyses the price chart thoroughly, the individuals can develop an understanding of the price behaviour model with specific security and can efficiently anticipate the future behaviour of the specific security price. Moreover, the previously mentioned theory can be effective in increasing the potential profit from the investment in the stock market (Fama, 1965).