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有很多人认为，这些事件是相互关联的，这些事件发生在一个集群中，即使是在随机数据中出现，比如抛硬币。随机漫步理论描述了预期安全价格的所有方法最终都是无用的。根据Malkiel(2016)的说法，内在价值的感知是不可靠的，因为它依赖于对股票市场未来收益的主观估计。在这个问题上，他建议使用预期派息、预期增长率、估计风险以及利率等因素，这些因素支持假设安全的内在价值(Semenov, 2014)。

根据随机行走理论，技术分析是不可靠的，因为在销售价格趋势被打破后，以卖出的价格趋势来确定的价格趋势。重要的是，图表分析师使用的是买入或卖出太晚，并没有发现这条船。根据理论，这发生在股票价格复制信息和技术分析师移动股票。根据Malkiel(2016)，技术分析的广泛使用减少了方法的好处。

此外，根据Malkiel(2016)的说法，根本的分析是不完善的，原因是分析员经常收集信息，这些信息是坏的，没有价值的或者错误的解释。这就导致了股票价值的糟糕预测。因此，分析师往往对未来的安全价格做出错误的预测。一个组织或相关行业的外部因素可能会对股价产生严重的影响，使得基本面分析不恰当且不相关。

There are many people believe that the events are correlated with each other, which come in a cluster and streak even if the streak appears in random data like coin tosses. The random walks theory depicted that the entire methods of anticipating security price are useless in the end. According to Malkiel (2016), the perception of intrinsic value is undependable as it depends on the subjective estimation of the future earnings of the stock market. In this matter, he suggests using the factor like expected dividend pay-out, expected growth rate, estimated risk along with the interest rate, which support in assuming the intrinsic value of the security (Semenov, 2014).

According to the random walk theory, the technical analysis is undependable as the Chartist used to buy only the after price trends, which are established with the sell after the selling price trends are broken down. Importantly, the chartists use to buy or sell too late and fail to spot the boat. As per the theory, this occurs as the stock price replicates the information and the technical analyst moves on the stock. As per Malkiel (2016), the wide usages of technical analysis decrease the benefits of the approach.
Furthermore, according to Malkiel (2016), the fundamental analysis is imperfection, and the reason is the analyst often gathers information which is bad, worthless or incorrect interpretation of that information. It leads to the bad prediction of the stock value. Therefore, the analyst often predicts wrongly about the future price of the security. The exterior factors of an organization or the relevant industry may influence badly on the stock price, which makes the fundamental analysis inappropriate and irrelevant.

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随机漫步理论有两种截然不同的模式，在这两种模型中，数据或信息的快速合并对分析师和投资者都是不利的。来自公众的信息不会帮助分析师或投资者选择被低估的股票，因为市场已经将信息纳入了安全价格(Xu and Zhang, 2014)。

根据研究学者们的观点，主张随机漫步理论的人认为，这种理论是由具有相似分布的安全价格变化构成的。它还表明，安全价格变动并不相互依赖，这意味着它们是独立的。因此，不能利用以前的安全价格或市场趋势来预测其未来的走势(Zhang和Yang, 2016)。按照这个概念，安全价格是随机的，也是不可预测的。

根据随机漫步理论的支持者们的说法，如果不承担额外的风险，就不可能超越或打破市场。有效市场假说认为，股票价格完全复制了完全可用的信息和预测;因此，实际价格是对公司内在价值的最好估计。这将阻止任何人以稳定的方式对错误定价的证券进行开发，因为价格的变动是随机的，并且会被意外事件所驱动(Dunham, 2013)。为此，研究这一课题的学者们主张投资于一个被动管理的多元基金。

There are two distinct models of the random walk theory, and in both models, the rapid incorporation of the data or information is not beneficial to the analysts and investors. The information gathered from the public will not assist an analyst or investor in selecting undervalued stocks because the market has already incorporated the information into the security price (Xu and Zhang, 2014).
According to the research scholars, who advocates random walk theory addresses that the theory consists of security price alterations with having similar distribution. It also indicates that the security price alterations are not dependent to each other that mean they are independent. Therefore, the previous movement or trend of a security price or market cannot be utilized to forecast its future movement (Zhang and Yang, 2016). As per the concept, the security prices take a random as well as unpredictable way.

According to the supporters of the random walk theory, it is not possible to outperform or break the market without assuming the extra risk. The efficient market hypothesis states that stock prices completely replicate the complete available information and prediction; thus, the actual prices are the best estimation of a firm’s intrinsic value. This would prevent anyone from the exploitation of the mispriced securities in a steady way, as the movements of prices are random and use to be driven by the unforeseen incidents (Dunham, 2013). For this reason, the research scholars who work on this topic advocate the investment in a passively managed well-diversified fund.

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根据随机漫步理论，股票的现有市场价格是机会的结果，而不是之前事件的总和或人类行为模型的结果。随机漫步理论被认为是一个激烈争论的话题，在学术学者、金融分析师和投资者之间存在着许多争论。一个活跃的交易股票的价格变动或价格变动被证明是随机的，因此任何对未来价格波动的预测都必须被认为是一个错误的练习(Bougioukou, 2015)。

根据支持随机漫步理论的学者们的说法，未来安全价格的变动比过去的更难以预测。这个想法是随机漫步理论的关键。如果股票的当前市场价格是股票实际价值的完整表示，那么就没有任何方法可以分析，这可以对未来的证券价格走势提供一个适当的洞察。

作者Malkiel将随机漫步的概念和理论进行了扩展，提出了一种观点，即安全的主动交易是以下命题。正是由于交易成本的随机性，价格变动才说明作者提出的命题(Chitenderu, Maredza and Sibanda, 2014)。通过对不同的股票市场指数进行投资，买入并持有交易管理的理念，并将其与短期交易策略进行技术分析比较，认为这是一种较好的交易策略。

According to the random walk theory, a stock’s existing market price is a result of chance rather than the summation of previous events or the outcome of the model of human behaviour. The random walk theory is considered as a hotly debated subject, and there are many debates occur in this subject among the academic scholars, financial analyst and the investors. The individual prices movement or price changes of an actively traded stock are illustrated to be random and thus any prediction of future price fluctuations must be considered as a faulty exercise (Bougioukou, 2015).

According to the scholars who support the random walk theory, the future movement of the security price is widely unpredictable than the past one. The idea is the key for the random walk theory. In case the present market price of a stock is a full representation of the actual value of the stock, then there is not any way to analysis, which can give an appropriate insight into where the security price will move in future.
The author Malkiel made expansion of the concepts and theory of random walk by provide an argument that the active trading of security is the following proposition. It is because of the transaction cost random characteristics of the price movement which indicates the explanation of the proposition made by the author (Chitenderu, Maredza and Sibanda, 2014). The investment are implemented on different stock market indices to buy and hold philosophies of trade management and it is considered as far better trading strategy by Malkiel with comparing to the short term trading strategies by technical analysis.

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尤金·法玛教授的这篇文章的主要主题是评估证券的未来价值，并认识到支持证券未来价格的因素。然而，总体而言，有两种理论来评估市场，并预测未来的安全价格(DahiyaGaina, 2012)。这两种理论分别是宪章理论和随机漫步理论。宪章理论建立在安全价格的先前行为之上。根据该理论，如果任何人都能有效地理解任何特定安全的价格变化的行为模式，那么个人从股票市场中获利的机会就会增加(Dsouza和Mallikarjunappa, 2015)。教授如何不支持宪章理论，相反，他提倡随机漫步理论。根据文章作者的观点，在证券市场上，由于证券市场价格的变化是独立的，所以之前的图表对于做出任何艰难的投资决策都是没有用的，这与过去的价格没有任何关系(Dunham, 2013)。因此，过去的安全价格不能用来预测未来的价格。

论文对当前金融文献的影响: 这篇论文已经写了将近50年了。然而，本文的理论和概念在当代股票市场上是有关联的，而目前研究这一特定问题的研究人员经常引用这篇文章的理论和原理。学者们正在研究这个问题(证券市场的行为和对未来价格的预测)，并对随机漫步理论(Echaust, 2014)提供了非常重要的意义。该理论认为，市场和证券价格是随机的，它们与过去的价格没有任何联系。证券的过去价格不能影响证券的未来价格。这一理论背后的主要思想是，安全价格的随机性使得人们试图识别价格模式以获取最新信息的好处。具体来说，该理论认为日常的安全价格是独立的(Gallander, 2008)。这意味着，这种势头在本质上并没有持续下去，而且对于任何特定股票的未来增长，都无法预测之前的盈利增长。

The main theme of the article by Professor Eugene F. Fama is to evaluate the future value of the security and to recognize the factors that support in predicting future price of the securities. However, in general, there are two theories that exist to evaluate the market and predict the future price of the security (DahiyaGaina, 2012). The two theories are the chartist theory and the random walks theory. The Chartist theory is founded on the previous behaviour of the security price. According to the theory, if anyone can be able to understand the behaviour pattern of the price change of any specific security efficiently, the chance of the individual to make the profit from the stock market is increased (Dsouza and Mallikarjunappa, 2015). How the Professor did not support the Chartist theory, instead he advocated for the random walks theory. According to the author of the article, the previous charts are not useful for making any tough investment decision in the stock market as the changing of the prices in the security market is independent, and this has not any connection with the past price (Dunham, 2013). Therefore, the past prices of the security cannot be used to predict the future price.

Impact of the paper on current financial literature: However, the paper has been written for almost fifty years. Still, the theories and concepts of the paper are relevant in the contemporary stock market, and the present researchers who work on this particular matter frequently used to refer the theories and principal of this article. The scholars are working in this matter (behaviour of security market and prediction of future price) and providing great importance to random walks theory (Echaust, 2014). The theory states that the markets as well as the security prices are random and they do not have any connection with the past price. The past prices of the security cannot influence the future price of the securities. The main idea behind this theory is that the randomness of security prices makes attempt for recognizing the price patterns to take benefits of latest information. Specifically, the theory argues that the day-to-day security prices are independent (Gallander, 2008). It means that the momentum does not persist in nature and the computation of the previous earning growth cannot be anticipated for future growth of any specific stock.

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根据作者的观点，关于真实意义上的证券价格的随机游走理论有两个不同的假设:

连续的价格变动是独立的。
价格的变动在某种程度上是传统的。

根据这篇文章，一系列连续的价格变动足以说明价格变动分配的某些特定性质。如果范围内的真实情况不足以解释所涉及的财产，统计学家可以将一个独立的假设作为对现实的充分描述(Chen, 2010)。

对某一特定股票的连续价格变动的独立性，可能只是模仿一种完全不同于实际经济世界的价格机制和政治事件。

随机漫步理论的另一个假设是价格变动符合可能性分布(Chitenderu, Maredza和Sibanda, 2014)。然而，在这两个假设之间，独立性是最重要的。价格变动的分配模型被认为是对希望在这一领域从事实际工作的个人的重要信息。统计工具的强度通常与它的功能特性密切相关。

According to the author, the theory of the random walks regarding the security prices in genuine sense associates with two different hypotheses which are as follows:
The successive price alterations are independent.
The price alterations are conventional to some possibility distribution.
According to the article, a range of successive price alterations is adequate to account for some specific property of the distribution of price alterations. In case the real in the ranges is not adequate to explain for the property in question, the statistician may take an independent hypothesis as a sufficient description of the reality (Chen, 2010).
Independence of consecutive price alteration for a specific stock may simply imitate a price mechanism that is completely dissimilar to the actual world of economies along with the political events.

Another hypothesis of the theory of random walks is indicated to be the price alteration that conforms to possibility distribution (Chitenderu, Maredza and Sibanda, 2014). However, between the two hypotheses, the independence is the most significant. The model of the distribution of the price alterations is considered as important information to an individual who wishes to perform the practical job in this field. The strength of statistical tools is in general closely connected to the nature of data to which it is functional.

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所有的图表理论认为，股票价格的过去行为被认为是预测股票未来走势的重要信息(Bei et al.， 2014)。这些理论主要基于“历史重演”的原则。此外，根据该理论，以往价格行为的模式将倾向于在未来再次发生。根据这些图表理论，如果一个人仔细地分析了价格图表，个人就可以对价格行为模型有特定的安全性的理解，并且能够有效地预测特定安全价格的未来行为。此外，先前提到的理论可以有效地增加投资于股票市场的潜在利润(Fama, 1965)。

另一种随机漫步理论则提供了不同的看法。此外，根据随机游动的理论，未来安全价格水平的旅程可以更有效地预测一系列随机数据的收集过程。从统计学上讲，这个理论可以解释为，连续的价格变化是独立的，并且是相同的分散的随机变量。从一个简单的意义上说，这意味着价格变动的范围没有记忆;因此，之前的统计数据不能用于预测股票未来价格的准确方法(Borges, 2011)。教授更强调随机漫步理论，它是随机漫步模型的基础。在本文中，作者详细讨论了随机游动模型的理论。此外，作者还研究了随机漫步模型的实际有效性，并得出结论:数据似乎以一致的方式存在，并为理论提供了强有力的支持(Bougioukou, 2015)。文章的结论是，以前的图表的阅读可能是一个有趣的过去的时间。但是，这些不能为股票市场的投资者提供实际的价值。

All the Chartist theories assume that the previous behaviour of the stock price is considered as the important information and useful in predicting the future behaviour of the stock(Bei et al., 2014). The theories are mainly based on the principle “history repeat itself”. Moreover, according to the theory, the pattern of the previous price behaviour will be inclined to happen again in the future. According to these chartists theory, if an individual carefully analyses the price chart thoroughly, the individuals can develop an understanding of the price behaviour model with specific security and can efficiently anticipate the future behaviour of the specific security price. Moreover, the previously mentioned theory can be effective in increasing the potential profit from the investment in the stock market (Fama, 1965).

The other theory of random walks provides a different perception. Moreover, according to the theory of random walks, the future journey of a security’s price level can be more efficiently predict by the journey of a range of collected random numbers. Statistically, the theory can be explained in a way that successive price alterations are independent and identically dispersed random variables. In a simple sense, it implies that the range of price alterations has no memory; thus, the previous statistics cannot be applied to anticipate the future price of the stock in an exact method (Borges, 2011). The Professor provided greater emphasis on the random walks theory, which is underlying on random walks model. In this article, the author discussed the theory of the random walks model in a detailed way. Moreover, the author examined random walk’s model practical validity and concluded that the data seem to exist in a consistent way and provide strong support to the theory (Bougioukou, 2015). The conclusion of the article paper was that the reading of the previous chart might be an interesting past time. However, these could not provide the actual value to the investors of the stock market.

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股票市场在本质上是剧烈波动的;因此，在对市场进行投资决策之前，分析股票市场的行为是很重要的。运用多种理论和原理对股票市场价格的行为进行评价，对某一特定股票的未来绩效进行有效预测。在这个问题上，尤金·法玛教授在很久以前就提供了扎实的概念知识(Agwuegbo, 2010)。此外，法玛教授所提出的理论和概念框架在这个时代仍然是相关的。教授充分强调了随机漫步理论。根据随机游动的理论，股票或证券价格水平的未来走势可以更有效地预测随机数字的范围。股票价格是随机变化的，因此，对股票价格的准确预测是不可能的(Banumathy和Azhagaiah, 2014)。在整个分配过程中，教授所提供的理论将被评估，并将与当前在股票市场做出决定的情景进行验证。

在文章的开头，作者对以往的普通股价格历史的程度提出了一个问题，可以用来对特定股票的未来价格进行有意义的预测。此外，根据作者的观点，有两种理论可以给出上述问题的答案。一些图表专家制定了第一个和第二个理论，这个理论被称为随机漫步理论(Beer, Watfa and Zouaoui, 2012)。有几种不同的图表理论支持预测股票未来的价格走势。然而，所有这些理论都很普遍，因为它们都创造了类似的基本预期。

The stock market is extensively volatile in nature; thus, it is important to analyse the behaviour of a stock market before making any decision on investment within the market. There are several theories and principles applied to evaluate the behaviour of the stock market price to make an effective prediction of the future performance of a specific stock. In this matter, Professor Eugene F. Fama provided solid conceptual knowledge in long before (Agwuegbo, 2010). Furthermore, the theories and conceptual framework given by Professor Fama are still relevant in this era. The professor provided adequate emphasis on the theory of random walks. According to the theory of random walks, the future journey of the price level of stock or security can more effectively predict by the range of collected random numbers. The stock prices use to change on a random basis and thus, to make any accurate prediction of the stock price is impossible (Banumathy and Azhagaiah, 2014). Throughout the assignment, the theories provided by the Professor will be evaluated and will be verified with current scenarios of making the decision in the stock market.

At the beginning of the article, the author kept a question about the degree of the previous history of common stock price which can be utilized to formulate a meaningful anticipation about the future price of that specific stock. Moreover, as per the author, there are two theories by which the answer of the question above can be given. Several chartists formulate the first and second theory which is referred to as the theory of random walks (Beer, Watfa and Zouaoui, 2012). There are several different chartist theories, which support in anticipating the future price behaviour of the stocks. However, all of these theories are common in the sense that they all create the similar types of basic anticipations.

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当= 0时，JSM和BSM得到安全系数。交叉点显示了M-PM或SM的安全系数。Janbu的广义方法接近于交点。广义极限平衡过程的优点是在相同的图中对安全系数进行比较。在此过程中可采用复合材料和圆形SS的稳定性分析。变量间切力函数描述了在随后的迭代后，夹层力的倾斜度。广义极限平衡考虑剪切力和夹层力，同时满足力和力矩的平衡，允许对夹层力函数进行选择，并描述了最先进和常用极限平衡方法的比较。

OM是用手算的。JSMsand BS已经广泛应用于稳定性分析。这种方法很常见，因为在大多数情况下，可以用适当的准确性来估计安全系数。该方法在满足力矩和力平衡方面有一定的局限性。采用BSM对圆剪切面进行分析。JSM在检查非圆形表面的安全系数时是灵活的。在故障面和不规则斜坡上均可有效地处理JGM的优点。切片的力矩平衡显示了接近安全系数的力平衡的解。

BSM显示了比JSM更高的安全性因素，并且在安全系数的5%以内从严格的方法获得。相对于Morgenstern-Price和Spencer方法计算的结果，安全系数可以相差15%。从力矩平衡中可以看出，力平衡的安全系数对f(x)更敏感。安全系数对f(x)段敏感。在锚点或点荷载的情况下，安全的力矩平衡系数已相当大的转移到安全系数较低的地方。从力矩平衡的角度考虑安全系数在外力的应用中被认为是比较敏感的。由于锚力或点荷载作用，夹层剪切力增加。降低了正常基力，降低了抗剪强度。

When λ= 0, the factor of safety is obtained for JSM and BSM. The intersection point shows the factor of safety for M-PM or SM. The Janbu’s generalized method is close to the intersection point. The generalized limit equilibrium processes have the advantage to make comparisons of a factor of safety in the same diagram. The stability analysis for composite and circular SS can be used in the procedure. The variable interslice force function describes the inclination of interslice forces after the subsequent iterations. The generalized limit equilibrium considers both shear and interslice forces, satisfies both force and moment equilibriums, allows selection for the interslice force function and depicts the comparison of most advanced and common limit equilibrium methods.
The OM is calculated by hand. JSMsand BS have used widely for the stability analysis. The methods are common because in most cases, a factor of safety can be estimated with the adequate accuracy.The methods have some limitations in the satisfying moment and force equilibrium. The BSM is used for the analysis of circular shear surface. The JSM is flexible in examining the factor of safety for the non-circular surfaces. The advantage of JGM can be handled effectively at both failure surfaces and irregular slopes. The moment equilibrium for the slices shows the solution for the force equilibrium which is close to the factor of safety.

The BSM shows a higher factor of safety than JSM and declines within 5% of the factor of safety obtained from rigorous methods. The factor of safety can differ by 15% in comparison to the results calculated by Morgenstern-Price and Spencer methods. The factor of safety from force equilibrium can be seen more sensitive to the f(x) from moment equilibrium. The factor of safety is sensitive to the section of f(x).In the case of the anchors or point loads, the moment equilibrium factor of safety has considerable shifting towards the lower factor of safety. The factor of safety from the moment equilibrium is considered as more sensitive in the application of the external forces. The interslice shear forces increase due to the anchor forces or point loads. It can decrease the normal base force, and the shear strength is decreased.

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在稳定性分析中采用了直接法和广义法。简布的简化方法是基于复合非圆的，安全系数是由水平力平衡决定的。该方法考虑了正常的夹层力，但不包括剪切力。一般的基力是确定的，它和安全系数是一样的。毕夏普的简化方法是: 安全系数的推导是建立在力矩和力平衡的基础上的。P= w/b =总垂直应力。B=切片的宽度。

一般的极限平衡过程由极限平衡法的假设和发展构成。这是Morgenstern-Price和Spencer方法的扩展，在这个方法中，interslice的斜率被分配用来评估interslice力。一般的极限平衡是比较安全系数的常用方法。最倾向于力矩平衡和力平衡的是圆SS分析。调频和Ff的位置已被平面SS分析所逆转。

The direct method and generalized method is introduced by Janbu that is used in the stability analysis. The simplified method of Janbu is based on the composite noncircular and the factor of safety is determined by the horizontal force equilibrium. The method considers the normal interslice forces, but it does not include the shear forces. The normal base force is determined, and it is the same as the factor of safety. Bishop’s simplified method is computed by:

The derivations of a factor of safety are based on moment and force equilibrium.

P= w/b = total vertical stress
B= width of the slice