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尤金·法玛教授的这篇文章的主要主题是评估证券的未来价值，并认识到支持证券未来价格的因素。然而，总体而言，有两种理论来评估市场，并预测未来的安全价格(DahiyaGaina, 2012)。这两种理论分别是宪章理论和随机漫步理论。宪章理论建立在安全价格的先前行为之上。根据该理论，如果任何人都能有效地理解任何特定安全的价格变化的行为模式，那么个人从股票市场中获利的机会就会增加(Dsouza和Mallikarjunappa, 2015)。教授如何不支持宪章理论，相反，他提倡随机漫步理论。根据文章作者的观点，在证券市场上，由于证券市场价格的变化是独立的，所以之前的图表对于做出任何艰难的投资决策都是没有用的，这与过去的价格没有任何关系(Dunham, 2013)。因此，过去的安全价格不能用来预测未来的价格。

论文对当前金融文献的影响: 这篇论文已经写了将近50年了。然而，本文的理论和概念在当代股票市场上是有关联的，而目前研究这一特定问题的研究人员经常引用这篇文章的理论和原理。学者们正在研究这个问题(证券市场的行为和对未来价格的预测)，并对随机漫步理论(Echaust, 2014)提供了非常重要的意义。该理论认为，市场和证券价格是随机的，它们与过去的价格没有任何联系。证券的过去价格不能影响证券的未来价格。这一理论背后的主要思想是，安全价格的随机性使得人们试图识别价格模式以获取最新信息的好处。具体来说，该理论认为日常的安全价格是独立的(Gallander, 2008)。这意味着，这种势头在本质上并没有持续下去，而且对于任何特定股票的未来增长，都无法预测之前的盈利增长。

The main theme of the article by Professor Eugene F. Fama is to evaluate the future value of the security and to recognize the factors that support in predicting future price of the securities. However, in general, there are two theories that exist to evaluate the market and predict the future price of the security (DahiyaGaina, 2012). The two theories are the chartist theory and the random walks theory. The Chartist theory is founded on the previous behaviour of the security price. According to the theory, if anyone can be able to understand the behaviour pattern of the price change of any specific security efficiently, the chance of the individual to make the profit from the stock market is increased (Dsouza and Mallikarjunappa, 2015). How the Professor did not support the Chartist theory, instead he advocated for the random walks theory. According to the author of the article, the previous charts are not useful for making any tough investment decision in the stock market as the changing of the prices in the security market is independent, and this has not any connection with the past price (Dunham, 2013). Therefore, the past prices of the security cannot be used to predict the future price.

Impact of the paper on current financial literature: However, the paper has been written for almost fifty years. Still, the theories and concepts of the paper are relevant in the contemporary stock market, and the present researchers who work on this particular matter frequently used to refer the theories and principal of this article. The scholars are working in this matter (behaviour of security market and prediction of future price) and providing great importance to random walks theory (Echaust, 2014). The theory states that the markets as well as the security prices are random and they do not have any connection with the past price. The past prices of the security cannot influence the future price of the securities. The main idea behind this theory is that the randomness of security prices makes attempt for recognizing the price patterns to take benefits of latest information. Specifically, the theory argues that the day-to-day security prices are independent (Gallander, 2008). It means that the momentum does not persist in nature and the computation of the previous earning growth cannot be anticipated for future growth of any specific stock.

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根据作者的观点，关于真实意义上的证券价格的随机游走理论有两个不同的假设:

连续的价格变动是独立的。
价格的变动在某种程度上是传统的。

根据这篇文章，一系列连续的价格变动足以说明价格变动分配的某些特定性质。如果范围内的真实情况不足以解释所涉及的财产，统计学家可以将一个独立的假设作为对现实的充分描述(Chen, 2010)。

对某一特定股票的连续价格变动的独立性，可能只是模仿一种完全不同于实际经济世界的价格机制和政治事件。

随机漫步理论的另一个假设是价格变动符合可能性分布(Chitenderu, Maredza和Sibanda, 2014)。然而，在这两个假设之间，独立性是最重要的。价格变动的分配模型被认为是对希望在这一领域从事实际工作的个人的重要信息。统计工具的强度通常与它的功能特性密切相关。

According to the author, the theory of the random walks regarding the security prices in genuine sense associates with two different hypotheses which are as follows:
The successive price alterations are independent.
The price alterations are conventional to some possibility distribution.
According to the article, a range of successive price alterations is adequate to account for some specific property of the distribution of price alterations. In case the real in the ranges is not adequate to explain for the property in question, the statistician may take an independent hypothesis as a sufficient description of the reality (Chen, 2010).
Independence of consecutive price alteration for a specific stock may simply imitate a price mechanism that is completely dissimilar to the actual world of economies along with the political events.

Another hypothesis of the theory of random walks is indicated to be the price alteration that conforms to possibility distribution (Chitenderu, Maredza and Sibanda, 2014). However, between the two hypotheses, the independence is the most significant. The model of the distribution of the price alterations is considered as important information to an individual who wishes to perform the practical job in this field. The strength of statistical tools is in general closely connected to the nature of data to which it is functional.

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所有的图表理论认为，股票价格的过去行为被认为是预测股票未来走势的重要信息(Bei et al.， 2014)。这些理论主要基于“历史重演”的原则。此外，根据该理论，以往价格行为的模式将倾向于在未来再次发生。根据这些图表理论，如果一个人仔细地分析了价格图表，个人就可以对价格行为模型有特定的安全性的理解，并且能够有效地预测特定安全价格的未来行为。此外，先前提到的理论可以有效地增加投资于股票市场的潜在利润(Fama, 1965)。

另一种随机漫步理论则提供了不同的看法。此外，根据随机游动的理论，未来安全价格水平的旅程可以更有效地预测一系列随机数据的收集过程。从统计学上讲，这个理论可以解释为，连续的价格变化是独立的，并且是相同的分散的随机变量。从一个简单的意义上说，这意味着价格变动的范围没有记忆;因此，之前的统计数据不能用于预测股票未来价格的准确方法(Borges, 2011)。教授更强调随机漫步理论，它是随机漫步模型的基础。在本文中，作者详细讨论了随机游动模型的理论。此外，作者还研究了随机漫步模型的实际有效性，并得出结论:数据似乎以一致的方式存在，并为理论提供了强有力的支持(Bougioukou, 2015)。文章的结论是，以前的图表的阅读可能是一个有趣的过去的时间。但是，这些不能为股票市场的投资者提供实际的价值。

All the Chartist theories assume that the previous behaviour of the stock price is considered as the important information and useful in predicting the future behaviour of the stock(Bei et al., 2014). The theories are mainly based on the principle “history repeat itself”. Moreover, according to the theory, the pattern of the previous price behaviour will be inclined to happen again in the future. According to these chartists theory, if an individual carefully analyses the price chart thoroughly, the individuals can develop an understanding of the price behaviour model with specific security and can efficiently anticipate the future behaviour of the specific security price. Moreover, the previously mentioned theory can be effective in increasing the potential profit from the investment in the stock market (Fama, 1965).

The other theory of random walks provides a different perception. Moreover, according to the theory of random walks, the future journey of a security’s price level can be more efficiently predict by the journey of a range of collected random numbers. Statistically, the theory can be explained in a way that successive price alterations are independent and identically dispersed random variables. In a simple sense, it implies that the range of price alterations has no memory; thus, the previous statistics cannot be applied to anticipate the future price of the stock in an exact method (Borges, 2011). The Professor provided greater emphasis on the random walks theory, which is underlying on random walks model. In this article, the author discussed the theory of the random walks model in a detailed way. Moreover, the author examined random walk’s model practical validity and concluded that the data seem to exist in a consistent way and provide strong support to the theory (Bougioukou, 2015). The conclusion of the article paper was that the reading of the previous chart might be an interesting past time. However, these could not provide the actual value to the investors of the stock market.

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股票市场在本质上是剧烈波动的;因此，在对市场进行投资决策之前，分析股票市场的行为是很重要的。运用多种理论和原理对股票市场价格的行为进行评价，对某一特定股票的未来绩效进行有效预测。在这个问题上，尤金·法玛教授在很久以前就提供了扎实的概念知识(Agwuegbo, 2010)。此外，法玛教授所提出的理论和概念框架在这个时代仍然是相关的。教授充分强调了随机漫步理论。根据随机游动的理论，股票或证券价格水平的未来走势可以更有效地预测随机数字的范围。股票价格是随机变化的，因此，对股票价格的准确预测是不可能的(Banumathy和Azhagaiah, 2014)。在整个分配过程中，教授所提供的理论将被评估，并将与当前在股票市场做出决定的情景进行验证。

在文章的开头，作者对以往的普通股价格历史的程度提出了一个问题，可以用来对特定股票的未来价格进行有意义的预测。此外，根据作者的观点，有两种理论可以给出上述问题的答案。一些图表专家制定了第一个和第二个理论，这个理论被称为随机漫步理论(Beer, Watfa and Zouaoui, 2012)。有几种不同的图表理论支持预测股票未来的价格走势。然而，所有这些理论都很普遍，因为它们都创造了类似的基本预期。

The stock market is extensively volatile in nature; thus, it is important to analyse the behaviour of a stock market before making any decision on investment within the market. There are several theories and principles applied to evaluate the behaviour of the stock market price to make an effective prediction of the future performance of a specific stock. In this matter, Professor Eugene F. Fama provided solid conceptual knowledge in long before (Agwuegbo, 2010). Furthermore, the theories and conceptual framework given by Professor Fama are still relevant in this era. The professor provided adequate emphasis on the theory of random walks. According to the theory of random walks, the future journey of the price level of stock or security can more effectively predict by the range of collected random numbers. The stock prices use to change on a random basis and thus, to make any accurate prediction of the stock price is impossible (Banumathy and Azhagaiah, 2014). Throughout the assignment, the theories provided by the Professor will be evaluated and will be verified with current scenarios of making the decision in the stock market.

At the beginning of the article, the author kept a question about the degree of the previous history of common stock price which can be utilized to formulate a meaningful anticipation about the future price of that specific stock. Moreover, as per the author, there are two theories by which the answer of the question above can be given. Several chartists formulate the first and second theory which is referred to as the theory of random walks (Beer, Watfa and Zouaoui, 2012). There are several different chartist theories, which support in anticipating the future price behaviour of the stocks. However, all of these theories are common in the sense that they all create the similar types of basic anticipations.

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当= 0时，JSM和BSM得到安全系数。交叉点显示了M-PM或SM的安全系数。Janbu的广义方法接近于交点。广义极限平衡过程的优点是在相同的图中对安全系数进行比较。在此过程中可采用复合材料和圆形SS的稳定性分析。变量间切力函数描述了在随后的迭代后，夹层力的倾斜度。广义极限平衡考虑剪切力和夹层力，同时满足力和力矩的平衡，允许对夹层力函数进行选择，并描述了最先进和常用极限平衡方法的比较。

OM是用手算的。JSMsand BS已经广泛应用于稳定性分析。这种方法很常见，因为在大多数情况下，可以用适当的准确性来估计安全系数。该方法在满足力矩和力平衡方面有一定的局限性。采用BSM对圆剪切面进行分析。JSM在检查非圆形表面的安全系数时是灵活的。在故障面和不规则斜坡上均可有效地处理JGM的优点。切片的力矩平衡显示了接近安全系数的力平衡的解。

BSM显示了比JSM更高的安全性因素，并且在安全系数的5%以内从严格的方法获得。相对于Morgenstern-Price和Spencer方法计算的结果，安全系数可以相差15%。从力矩平衡中可以看出，力平衡的安全系数对f(x)更敏感。安全系数对f(x)段敏感。在锚点或点荷载的情况下，安全的力矩平衡系数已相当大的转移到安全系数较低的地方。从力矩平衡的角度考虑安全系数在外力的应用中被认为是比较敏感的。由于锚力或点荷载作用，夹层剪切力增加。降低了正常基力，降低了抗剪强度。

When λ= 0, the factor of safety is obtained for JSM and BSM. The intersection point shows the factor of safety for M-PM or SM. The Janbu’s generalized method is close to the intersection point. The generalized limit equilibrium processes have the advantage to make comparisons of a factor of safety in the same diagram. The stability analysis for composite and circular SS can be used in the procedure. The variable interslice force function describes the inclination of interslice forces after the subsequent iterations. The generalized limit equilibrium considers both shear and interslice forces, satisfies both force and moment equilibriums, allows selection for the interslice force function and depicts the comparison of most advanced and common limit equilibrium methods.
The OM is calculated by hand. JSMsand BS have used widely for the stability analysis. The methods are common because in most cases, a factor of safety can be estimated with the adequate accuracy.The methods have some limitations in the satisfying moment and force equilibrium. The BSM is used for the analysis of circular shear surface. The JSM is flexible in examining the factor of safety for the non-circular surfaces. The advantage of JGM can be handled effectively at both failure surfaces and irregular slopes. The moment equilibrium for the slices shows the solution for the force equilibrium which is close to the factor of safety.

The BSM shows a higher factor of safety than JSM and declines within 5% of the factor of safety obtained from rigorous methods. The factor of safety can differ by 15% in comparison to the results calculated by Morgenstern-Price and Spencer methods. The factor of safety from force equilibrium can be seen more sensitive to the f(x) from moment equilibrium. The factor of safety is sensitive to the section of f(x).In the case of the anchors or point loads, the moment equilibrium factor of safety has considerable shifting towards the lower factor of safety. The factor of safety from the moment equilibrium is considered as more sensitive in the application of the external forces. The interslice shear forces increase due to the anchor forces or point loads. It can decrease the normal base force, and the shear strength is decreased.

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在稳定性分析中采用了直接法和广义法。简布的简化方法是基于复合非圆的，安全系数是由水平力平衡决定的。该方法考虑了正常的夹层力，但不包括剪切力。一般的基力是确定的，它和安全系数是一样的。毕夏普的简化方法是: 安全系数的推导是建立在力矩和力平衡的基础上的。P= w/b =总垂直应力。B=切片的宽度。

一般的极限平衡过程由极限平衡法的假设和发展构成。这是Morgenstern-Price和Spencer方法的扩展，在这个方法中，interslice的斜率被分配用来评估interslice力。一般的极限平衡是比较安全系数的常用方法。最倾向于力矩平衡和力平衡的是圆SS分析。调频和Ff的位置已被平面SS分析所逆转。

The direct method and generalized method is introduced by Janbu that is used in the stability analysis. The simplified method of Janbu is based on the composite noncircular and the factor of safety is determined by the horizontal force equilibrium. The method considers the normal interslice forces, but it does not include the shear forces. The normal base force is determined, and it is the same as the factor of safety. Bishop’s simplified method is computed by:

The derivations of a factor of safety are based on moment and force equilibrium.

P= w/b = total vertical stress
B= width of the slice

The general limit equilibrium procedures consist of assumptions and developments made by the limit equilibrium methods. This is the extension of Morgenstern-Price and Spencer methods where the interslice slope is assigned to evaluate the interslice forces. The general limit equilibrium is appropriate to compare the common methods in the factor of safety. The most inclinations of moment equilibrium and force equilibrium have been particularly likely for the circular SS analysis. The position of Fm and Ff has been reversed by the plane SS analysis.

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坏消息理论意味着股票价格完全反映了当前的信息。1987年的市场崩盘可以被看作是基于自然的坏消息理论，因为理论的支持者暗示，在泡沫破裂的周末之前收集了大量的坏消息，这解释了价格的急剧下跌。文献表明，随着周末业务的结束，信息的可用性会在证券价格中得到整合。各种各样的新闻，如美元贬值、美国预算和贸易赤字、政治美国总统问题等，以及更多的原因导致了预期的进程。因此，该理论解释了股价的下跌。

另一种理论是对市场失灵的恐惧，市场机制失效的恐惧导致投资者在赎回之前就开始抛售证券，从而导致了预期的失败。这一理论提供了自我修正现象的例子。第三种是过度的套期保值理论，认为投资组合保险是一种对冲策略，增加了崩溃的幅度。两种类型的信息激励和信息自由投资者持续买入和卖出股票。当股票价格快速下跌，导致股票市场崩溃时，这是为确保投资组合的头寸进行保险和再平衡而采取的措施。

The Bad News Theory implies that the stock prices completely reflect the information present. The market crash of 1987 can be regarded as the bad news theory based in nature as the proponents of theory imply that the vast range of bad news was collected prior to the weekend of the bubble burst that explains the sharp decline in prices. It is suggested by the literature that the availability of information gets integrated within the prices of security as the business closes on the weekend. The variety of news such as the devaluation of dollar, twin U budget and trade deficits, political US presidential problems and more resulted in the reduction of the process that were expected. Hence, the theory explains the stock price decline. Another theory is the fear of market failure herein the fear of the market mechanism failure leads to investors towards unloading of securities prior to the callable that in result induced the anticipated failure. This theory provides with the example of self-correction phenomena.